All arguments (I've read) about death of programming actually prove the opposite: the more programming becomes easier the more robotics and programming will make a lot of other jobs obsolete.

The nice balloons you added at the end of your article explains it well.

The comment of O'Reilly you quote, in my opinion, is just saying that the golden age of programming is about to begin. It depends on what you mean for "golden":

- Easy money: that has already ended. The time when with a few technical skills in C were enough to get a well paid job is ended many years ago. Function pointers in C is a simple concept with an horrible syntax.

- Extensive need of programmers: this is already in progress and, if what O'Reilly says will turn true, this golden age will last for a very long period.

I liked your article, thanks for writing it. But I don't agree with the concept of "skilled" programmers vs "ordinary" programmers. If programming will be a skill like writing, the percentage between good programmers vs bad programmers will not change that much as it is today.

So I don't see why having more programmers will make programming jobs decline. If you want to hire someone to write the next best seller book, will you ask her if she is able to read and write?